Dangerous Climate Change
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What is Dangerous Climate Change?

Dangerous Climate Change has been widely accepted by a number of scientists, climatologists, NGO's and governments that concluded Dangerous Climate Change will occur if we do not reverse the amount of greenhouse gas emissions being spewed into the atmosphere, primarily from the use and burning of fossil fuels.  Dr. James Hansen states that "recent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause Dangerous Climate Change is at most 450 ppm, and likely less than that. Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate, albeit important, adjustments to the CO2 limit. Realization of how close the planet is to ‘tipping points’ with unacceptable consequences, especially ice sheet disintegration with sea level rise out of humanity’s control, has a bright side. It implies an imperative: we must find a way to keep the CO2 amount so low that it will also avert other detrimental effects that had begun to seem inevitable, e.g., ocean acidification, loss of most alpine glaciers and thus the water supply for millions of people, and shifting of climatic zones with consequent extermination of species. 

Dangerous Climate Change was discussed at the Scientific Symposium on Stabilization of Greenhouse Gases in 2005 wherein they examined the link between concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions, and the 2 °C (3.6 °F) ceiling on global warming thought necessary to avoid the most serious effects of global warming. Previously this had generally been accepted as being 550 ppm of carbon dioxide emissions.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC ) international environmental treaty (1992) states as its objective: "the ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent Dangerous Climate Change with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner."

International and national policies have established greenhouse gas emissions, specifically those of carbon dioxide emissions, to be limited to 350 ppm.  At present, carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere are approaching 390 ppm, which will not prevent Dangerous Climate Change. We also see research, papers and statements from scientists and others that “dangerous” climate change is already happening. 

Many scientists have already concluded that the “scientific evidence is compelling” that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions – as opposed to natural forces – are causing Dangerous Climate Change.  The EPA has relied on what it calls “three lines of evidence.” The first is based on the “physical” understanding of the climate. The second is the determination that the temperatures of the last “several decades” are unusual and even unprecedented during the current interglacial period known as the Holocene, when the world’s climate system has been similar to that of today, and particularly during the last 1000-2000 years when more is known about climate. The third is based on computer model simulations.

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EPA Proposes New "Greenhouse Gas Reporting" Rules under the 
Clean Air Act Which Now Requires Permits for Greenhouse Gas Emissions

August 12, 2010
WASHINGTON, D.C. 

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing two rules to ensure that businesses planning to build new, large facilities or make major expansions to existing ones will be able to obtain Clean Air Act permits that address their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the spring of 2010, EPA finalized the Greenhouse Gas Emissions "Tailoring Rule" which specifies that beginning in 2011, projects that will increase greenhouse gas emissions substantially will require an air permit. The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Tailoring Rule will help ensure that these sources will be able to get those permits regardless of where they are located.

The Greenhouse Gas Reporting "Tailoring Rule" covers large industrial facilities like power plants and oil refineries that are responsible for 70 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions from stationary sources. The proposals announced today are a critical component for implementing the GHG Emissions Tailoring Rule and would ensure that greenhouse gas emissions from these large facilities are minimized in all 50 states and that local economies can continue to grow.

The Clean Air Act requires states to develop EPA-approved implementation plans that include requirements for issuing air permits. When federal permitting requirements change, as they did after EPA finalized the GHG Emissions Tailoring Rule that requires all 50 states to update or modify these plans.

In the first rule, EPA is proposing to require permitting programs in 13 states to make changes to their implementation plans to ensure that GHG emissions will be covered. All other states that implement an EPA-approved air permitting program must review their existing permitting authority and inform EPA if their programs do not address greenhouse gas emissions.

Because some states may not be able to develop and submit revisions to their plans before the Tailoring Rule becomes effective in 2011, in the second rule, EPA is proposing a federal implementation plan, which would allow EPA to issue permits for large GHG emitters located in these states. This would be a temporary measure that is in place until the state can revise its own plan and resume responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions permitting.

States are best-suited to issue permits to sources of greenhouse gas emissions and have long-standing experience working together with industrial facilities. EPA will work closely and promptly with states to help them develop, submit, and approve necessary revisions to enable the affected states to issue air permits to GHG-emitting sources. Additionally, EPA will continue to provide guidance and act as a resource for the states as they make the various required permitting decisions for greenhouse gas emissions.

The EPA will accept comment on the first proposal for updated state implementation plans for 30 days after publication in the Federal Register. EPA has scheduled a hearing on the second proposal for the federal implementation plan on August 25, 2010, and will accept comment for 30 days after that hearing. The agency is working to finalize these rules prior to January 2, 2011, the earliest greenhouse gas emissions permitting requirements will be effective.
What are Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

Greenhouse Gas Emissions are those greenhouse gases that allow sunlight to enter the atmosphere freely and contribute to the greenhouse effect, which many believe is the cause of global warming. There are natural and man-made greenhouse gas emissions.  The primary greenhouse gases thought to be major contributors to global warming are; carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), methane & biomethane emissions (CH 4), chlorofluorocarbons, and nitrogen oxides (N2O).  Not included, but should be included according to some climate scientists is water vapor.

The primary sources of greenhouse gas emissions from manmade sources include; fossil-fueled power plants such as natural gas power plants and coal fired power plants. Other sources of greenhouse gas emissions linked to manmade causes include  internal combustion engines (fueled by gasoline and petroleum diesel) and deforestation.

Many people don't realize that as much as 25% of  per cent of the carbon dioxide emissions are naturally absorbed by the ocean and another 25% of the carbon dioxide emissions are absorbed by our biosphere, such as trees, plants, soil, etc.  This leaves about 50% of the carbon dioxide emissions that are not absorbed and remaining in our atmosphere. As previously stated, carbon dioxide emissions are linked primarily to the burning of fossil fuels (power plants, cars, trucks, etc.) and deforestation.

Greenhouse gas emissions have been on the increase ever since the dawn of the industrial revolution.

What is the "Greenhouse Effect" and the "Natural Greenhouse Effect?"

The "Natural Greenhouse Effect" is the natural level of greenhouse gases that are in the Earth's atmosphere.  This keeps our planet
warmer than it would otherwise be, and essential for life.  Water vapor is the most important component of the natural greenhouse effect. Approximately 80% to 90% of our planet's natural greenhouse effect is due to water vapor which is a very strong and potent greenhouse gas. The remaining 10% to 20% of the Earth's natural greenhouse effect is due to carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane plus a few relatively minor greenhouse gases.

The "Greenhouse Effect" the Earth is experiencing is due to the anthropogenic, or man-made greenhouse gas emissions that are polluting the Earth's atmosphere and ecosystem.  The Greenhouse Effect enhances or exacerbates the Earth's "natural greenhouse effect" with the additional greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels that come from coal, natural gas and other petroleum/hydrocarbon fuels.

The greenhouse effect is driven via "infrared radiation."  Greenhouse gases trap some of the infrared radiation that escapes from the Earth which makes/keeps the Earth warmer than it would otherwise be. Greenhouse gases act as a "blanket" for this infrared radiation and keeps the Earth's lower layers of the atmosphere warmer, and the upper layers cooler, than it would otherwise be is the greenhouse gases were not there.

It is the additional greenhouse gas emissions (primarily carbon dioxide emissions) and their ever-increasing levels in the atmosphere - due to the burning of fossil fuels - that are the cause of climate change and global warming.  The anthropogenic or man-made portion of the greenhouse effect, which started with the industrial revolution 150 years ago with the growing use of fossil fuels, that is the basis of the greenhouse effect.

One of the many negative outcomes to the planet is the acidification of the Earth's oceans.

What is Ocean Acidification?

Ocean acidification is the changing of the planet's oceans pH levels from alkaline to acid.  The oceans absorb about 25% of the  carbon dioxide emissions from the planet's atmosphere.  This helps offset or mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and global warming.  

When carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans, the CO2 dissolves in the seawater and carbonic acid is formed. Carbon emissions have lowered the pH of of the oceans by approximately 10% since the advent of the industrial revolution.  Ocean acidification  decreases the ability of marine organisms such as phytoplankton and algae to function.  Ocean acidification has also been linked to the dying off of coral reefs, as well as negatively impacting fish populations. 

What Are Greenhouse Gases?

Many chemical compounds found in the Earth’s atmosphere act as “greenhouse gases.” These gases allow sunlight to enter the atmosphere freely. When sunlight strikes the Earth’s surface, some of it is reflected back towards space as infrared radiation (heat). Greenhouse gases absorb this infrared radiation and trap the heat in the atmosphere. Over time, the amount of energy sent from the sun to the Earth’s surface should be about the same as the amount of energy radiated back into space, leaving the temperature of the Earth’s surface roughly constant.

Many gases exhibit these “greenhouse” properties. Some of them occur in nature (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide), while others are exclusively human-made (like gases used for aerosols).

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Biochar Technologies - new company that is integrating Renewable Energy Technologies with Biochar Production that will provide Carbon Capture and Sequestration.  Company will focus on the generation of Synthesis Gas from Biomass Gasification plants that are co-located with their "Natural Wastewater Treatment" plants and the Synthesis Gas will fuel their cogeneration and trigeneration power plants.

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What is Biochar?

Biochar is through a process called plasma pyrolysis or plasma gasification which are renewable energy technologies that heat biomass under high temperatures in the absence of oxygen.

When carbon dioxide emissions have been sequestered in biochar, the biochar prevents the release of the carbon dioxide emissions back into the climate, thus becoming a valuable tool in fighting climate change.  The carbon dioxide emissions are retained in the biochar for 100 to 10,000 yrs, with 5,000 being a common estimate..

Biochar is also a valuable soil amendment.  Like a fertilizer, plants and food crops grown with biochar thrive and produce more food than food crops grown without the addition of biochar.  In addition to creating a valuable soil enhancer, sustainable biochar practices produces synthesis gas which is a fuel used like natural gas, making it a valuable resource for renewable energy. When biochar is used as a soil amendment, and buried in the ground, we are not only removing and sequestering carbon dioxide emissions, we are "recycling carbon."

Biochar and the use of the synthesis gas generated in the production of Biochar, helps fight global climate change by replacing the fossil fuels that would have generated new "net" carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere.  

It has been estimated that through the use of Biochar Technologies, we can store approximately 2.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide emissions each year by 2050.

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What are Carbon Dioxide Emissions?

According to the EPA, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, or "Carbon Emissions" or simply "CO2," are generated in a number of ways. Carbon Dioxide Emissions are produced naturally through the carbon cycle and through human activities like the burning of fossil fuels.

Natural sources of CO2 occur within the carbon cycle where billions of tons of atmospheric CO2 are removed from the atmosphere by oceans and growing plants, also known as ‘sinks,’ and are emitted back into the atmosphere annually through natural processes also known as ‘sources.’ When in balance, the total carbon dioxide emissions and removals from the entire carbon cycle are roughly equal.

Since the Industrial Revolution in the 1700’s, human activities, such as the burning of oil, coal and gas, and deforestation, have increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. In 2005, global atmospheric concentrations of CO2 were 35% higher than they were before the Industrial Revolution.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions are responsible for about 80% of the problems related to Greenhouse Gas Emissions. 

Carbon Dioxide Emissions and carbon dioxide are one of the six chemicals

• methane and Biomethane

• nitrous oxide

• hydrofluorocarbons 

• perfluorocarbons 

• sulfur hexafluoride

and all six chemicals are planned to be significantly reduced via the global agreements under the Kyoto Protocol and new legislation in the U.S. under the pending "Cap and Trade" regulations in an effort to prevent climate change. 

The Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.  Consensus is growing for a replacement for the Kyoto Protocol which may be conclude in  
Johannesburg, South Africa in 2011.  If the meeting is successful in 2011, the "Johannesburg Protocol" will succeed the Kyoto Protocol. An interim "Cape Town Accord" may serve as an interim agreement until the next, more permanent Protocol is reached. For more information, see:  

www.KyotoProtocol.org

www.JohannesburgProtocol.com

www.CapeTownAccord.com

What are Chlorofluorocarbons?

Chlorfluorocarbons are a family of non-reactive, nonflamable gases and volatile liquids.

Understanding the names

• Halocarbons: Fluorine, chlorine and bromine belong to a chemical family called the halogens. When attached to carbon they form a group of compounds called 'halocarbons". The smaller halocarbons turn into a gas quite easily and are the prime-suspects in ozone-depletion.
  

• Chlorfluorocarbons abreviated CFC, are the major category of man-made halocarbons. Each different CFC is identified by a numbering system which describes the CFC structure.

  In the hundreds place, the number represents the number of carbons, less one.

  In the tens place the number represents the number of hydrogens, plus one.

  In the ones place the number represents the number of fluorines.

  For example CFC-113 has two carbons, no hydrogens and three fluorines. CFC-12 has one carbon, no hydrogen and two fluorines.

The CFC-ozone link

The non-reactivity of CFC's, so desirable to industry, allows them to drift for years in the environment until they eventually reach the stratosphere. High in the stratosphere, intense UV solar radiation severs chlorines off of the CFC's, and it is these unattached chlorines that are able to catalytically convert ozone molecules into oxygen molecules.

Different CFC's require different amounts of time to remove from the stratosphere, times ranging from 50 to over 200 years; so while it is cheering to see that the growth-rate of Chlorfluorocarbons in the atmosphere is starting to drop (Elkins et.al._Nature_364:1993), the impact of Chlorfluorocarbons on stratospheric ozone will continue well into the 22nd century.

CFC's differ widely in their stabilities and in how effectively they breakup ozone. A rating system called an Ozone Depletition Potential , ODP, is used to compare compounds by how much damage they may cause to environmental ozone. The ODP is arrived at by dividing the cumulative Ozone depletion of the compound by the ozone depletion caused by the release of an equal amount of CFC-12, one of the earliest CFC's. For example methyl chloride, the major naturally-made source of stratospheric chlorine, has a ODP of less than 0.10. This means that if equal amounts of methyl chloride and CFC-12 were releaced into the stratosphere, the methyl chloride would degrade 1/10th as much ozone as the CFC-12 . Halon 1301, a compound that contains bromine as well as chlorine, has an ODP of 10 so it is 10 times more destructive than CFC-12.

Proposed replacements for Chlorfluorocarbons

As government pressure to ban Chlorfluorocarbons increases, chemical companies are scrambling to find replacements that are effective, nontoxic and have a low ODP.  Industry is currently proposing to substitute HCFC's (Hydro-chloro-fluorcarbons) for CFC's because they are nearly as effective and nontoxic as CFC's but with ODP's that are 1/10th to 1/50th that of CFC-11. A big reason for their lower ODP is that it is predicted, based on lab experiments, that HCFC's will break-up in the troposphere and therefore not be able to transport chlorine into the stratosphere. Industry acknowledges that HCFC's are merely stopgap measures in the ongoing search for replacement, but many environmental groups are concerned that HCFC's may relieve pressure on industry to fund research for long-term replacements.

Most commonly used Chlorfluorocarbons

The size of the square reflects the relative contribution of each compound to CFC caused ozone depletion (UNEPdata, 1990). The times are the lefetimes of the compound in the atmosphere before it is broken down and/or removed.

How Can We Decrease Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

Greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy technologies, such as solar energy systems, and upgrading brown buildings to Net Zero Energy Buildings.

Why Are Atmospheric Levels of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Increasing?

Levels of several important greenhouse gases have increased by about 25 percent since large-scale industrialization began around 150 years ago (Figure 1). During the past 20 years, about three-quarters of human-made carbon dioxide emissions were from burning fossil fuels.

Figure 1. Trends in Atmospheric Concentrations and Anthropogenic Emissions of Carbon Dioxide

Concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are naturally regulated by numerous processes collectively known as the “carbon cycle” (Figure 2). The movement (“flux”) of carbon between the atmosphere and the land and oceans is dominated by natural processes, such as plant photosynthesis. While these natural processes can absorb some of the net 6.1 billion metric tons of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions produced each year (measured in carbon equivalent terms), an estimated 3.2 billion metric tons is added to the atmosphere annually. The Earth’s positive imbalance between emissions and absorption results in the continuing growth in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Figure 2. Global Carbon Cycle (Billion Metric Tons Carbon)

What Effect Do Greenhouse Gas Emissions Have on Climate Change?

Given the natural variability of the Earth’s climate, it is difficult to determine the extent of change that humans cause. In computer-based models, rising concentrations of greenhouse gases generally produce an increase in the average temperature of the Earth. Rising temperatures may, in turn, produce changes in weather, sea levels, and land use patterns, commonly referred to as “climate change.”

Assessments generally suggest that the Earth’s climate has warmed over the past century and that human activity affecting the atmosphere is likely an important driving factor. A National Research Council study dated May 2001 stated, “Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and sub-surface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability.”

However, there is uncertainty in how the climate system varies naturally and reacts to emissions of greenhouse gases. Making progress in reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate will require better awareness and understanding of the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the behavior of the climate system.

What Are the Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

In the U.S., our greenhouse gas emissions come mostly from energy use. These are driven largely by economic growth, fuel used for electricity generation, and weather patterns affecting heating and cooling needs. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, resulting from petroleum and natural gas, represent 82 percent of total U.S. human-made greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 3). The connection between energy use and carbon dioxide emissions is explored in the box on the reverse side (Figure 4).

Figure 3. U.S. Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Gas, 2001 (Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent)  

Figure 4. U.S. Primary Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2001

Another greenhouse gas, Biomethane, comes from landfills, coal mines, oil and gas operations, and agriculture; it represents 9 percent of total emissions. Nitrogen oxides (5 percent of total emissions), meanwhile, is emitted from burning fossil fuels and through the use of certain fertilizers and industrial processes. Human-made gases (2 percent of total emissions) are released as byproducts of industrial processes and through leakage.

What Is the Prospect for Future Carbon Dioxide Emissions?

World carbon dioxide emissions are expected to increase by 1.9 percent annually between 2001 and 2025 (Figure 5). Much of the increase in these emissions is expected to occur in the developing world where emerging economies, such as China and India, fuel economic development with fossil energy. Developing countries’ emissions are expected to grow above the world average at 2.7 percent annually between 2001 and 2025; and surpass emissions of industrialized countries near 2018.

Figure 5. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 2001-2025
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent)

The U.S. produces about 25 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels; primarily because our economy is the largest in the world and we meet 85 percent of our energy needs through burning fossil fuels. The U.S. is projected to lower its carbon intensity by 25 percent from 2001 to 2025, and remain below the world average (Figure 6).

Figure 6. Carbon Intensity by Region, 2001-2025
(Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent per Million $1997)

Energy Production and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

For over one hundred years, energy and power production have been generated around the world through the burning of fossil fuels, including;  fuel oil, coal, diesel, and natural gas.  Over the past decade, environmental science and research has discovered and linked global warming, and global climate change to the carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels.  This has placed an increased need to reduce energy consumption and discover more environmentally friendly fuel sources.

The carbon clock tracks total carbon dioxide emissions in metric tons since 1750.

Since 1750, humans have emitted over 5 trillion pounds of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Roughly half of this has ended up in the oceans where it is beginning to damage the coral reefs. The other half is still in the atmosphere and causing global warming. Each pound of CO2 takes up as much space as a 500 pound person.

The formula (which should be good for a year or two) is:
C(t) = 2.58 ×1012 + 1240×t, where t is seconds since the start of 2007.

C is tonnes (metric tons) of carbon dioxide emissions.
2205 x C gives pounds of carbon dioxide emissions.

That comes to over 43 billion tons/year or over 86 trillion pounds/year.

Carbon dioxide (2) = 1 carbon atom with 2 oxygen atoms.
Carbon has relative weight 12 and Oxygen 16.
So it takes only 12 pounds of carbon to make 12+16+16 = 44 pounds of CO2. 

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions Linked to 
the Loss of Polar Bears

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